Documenting history as it happens.
Quickly now: I am in a hurry today, and if you don’t know why that is, I will tell you why in a later post (why I am was in DC this morning, TX today, and back to DC tonight). Firstly, I promised an Election Guide for tonight, so here it is, put simply:
The four states to watch are Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), and Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, which Obama will win. So why watch Virginia? If Obama wins it by greater than 10%, it will signal an early national victory for Obama. If McCain loses, but holds the state by less than 5%, he has a shot, if he wins Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. His longest shot of those three is Pennsylvania. Watch Pennsylvania: if he wins there, he has a shot of winning the White House. If he loses PA, he will lose the election. He has to win Ohio and Florida as well, and Ohio is harder to win than Florida… but all three will be difficult. If McCain were to pull it off, it would be the greatest upset in presidential election history.
Let me close out by quoting the final sentences of Charles Krauthammer’s last case for McCain, in the New York Times: “The hunger for anti-Republican catharsis and the blinding promises of the Obamian hope are simply too strong.
“The reckoning comes in the morning.”
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