Congratulations, Mr. President

The best thing that could happen for President Obama in tomorrow’s midterm election is for a large Republican Majority to take the House of Representatives.  By all accounts, that’s exactly what is going to happen.  So, congratulations are indeed in store for Mr. Obama.

That may surprise you, but a Democratic defeat will, eventually, be really, really good for Obama in 2012.  This year, Americans from Tea Partiers to moderates will issue a referendum, to send a “message“ regarding big government liberalism and Obama himself.  After the election, however, Obama will remain, with roughly 60 less Democratic Representatives in the House.

Nancy Pelosi is mulling retirement after she loses Speakership tomorrow.  Harry Reid will likely lose his Senate seat to Sharron Angle.  Both of these losses are great for Obama, because, as of tomorrow, Obama’s top two henchmen from 2008 to 2010 will be scapegoats for the White House.  Obama was visibly, and precisely, removed from the Democratic Congress as they pushed his legislation for him.  Now it will be up to a revamped Administration and new Congressional leadership (and the Supreme Court, in some cases) to sort out the broken pieces of legislation and make sense of it all.

By all accounts, it looks like John Boehner will be Speaker of the House, and Chuck Schumer will be Senate Majority Leader.  At first glance, it seems like this will be a highly dysfunctional Congress.  To which, I say, good.  The President, if he were prudent, would agree with me.

Leading up to the 2008 Presidential election, all you heard from both parties was, “Government is broken.”  Since then, Obama and the Democrats proved that government that works is actually very bad government.  Our Founders knew this:  Divided government is good government, because legislation that makes it through a divided government passes a consensus.  Stimuli and Health Care reform did not gain a consensus, and both are highly toxic for congressional mid-term elections.  That is why the so-called conservative Democrats that were elected to office in 2006, and again in 2008, who voted according to Nancy Pelosi’s will and not their own, are cannon fodder in 2010.

A newly divided Congress will present the President with two paths to take.  Obama now has a chance to do some of the things Americans actually want to happen; that is, the harder choices.  He can work with Boehner in this regard, the way Bill Clinton eventually did with Newt Gengrich, to “fix Pelosi’s mess.”  If he doesn’t want to do that, the President can easily place blame with regards to the poor economy from here on out on the new House Leader, impugning him for stalling reform.  Either way, 2012 will be harder for Republicans than they may interpret in the wake of their victory tomorrow.  As Scott Rasmussen reports, “Voters will remain ready to vote against the party in power unless they are given a reason not to do so.”  For conservatives, there is no time to celebrate, to rest on laurels, for a bigger battle lies ahead.

So, Congratulations, Mr. Obama.  You’ve earned it.